How it fits together
One model at the centre. Everything else sharpens it.
Most vendors own one piece of this. A testing platform proves a channel but cannot plan your budget. A model plans your budget but nobody checks it. We run the loop.
The Model
“Where is my money actually going?”
A model of your whole business — online and offline.
What each channel really contributes, what would have sold anyway, and where each channel stops paying off. Built for your business, and it has to predict months it never saw before anyone acts on it.
Hover the diagram
The Model
“Where is my money actually going?”
A model of your whole business — online and offline.
Every channel, including the ones your tracking cannot see. What each one contributes, what would have sold anyway, and the point where each one stops paying off.
Here the next dollar returns about 10% of what your first dollar did — and you are 70% past the knee.
The Plan
“So what do I do on Monday?”
A budget, not a dashboard.
What to cut, what to grow, and by how much — with the what-if run before you move a dollar. Start with a rough estimate of what is sitting in the wrong place.
Find your wasted third
Likely sitting in the wrong place
$5M
About 20% of your budget. Concentrated spend gets scaled hardest, and the 20% you run offline is invisible to click-based reporting — so it gets set by guesswork.
Find the real numberEstimate from what we typically find — not a promise. Your real number comes from the two-week audit.
The Proof
“How do I know any of this is true?”
The model has to survive the real world.
We hide the last three to six months and make the model predict them. Then we test the recommendation live — in some markets, not others. When the test disagrees, the test wins.
Predicting months it never saw came in below the fit on months it did. That is the signature of a model that learned the business instead of memorizing its history.
A model with nothing to check it against. The line looks confident. The shaded area is how wrong it could be — and at high spend, it could be very wrong. This is what you are moving budget on when nobody tests.
The Horizon · Roadmap
“What should I be aiming at?”
Long-run value, not just this quarter.
A standard model optimises revenue now. Point it at what a customer is worth over their life, how a new product spreads, and what people trade off when they choose — and the conversation moves from marketing to finance.
Customer lifetime value
Set acquisition budgets against what a customer is worth, not first-order revenue.
Launch forecasting
How a new product or a new market takes hold — the one question no MMM can answer.
Choice modelling
What customers trade off between price, features, and brand.
On the roadmap — not yet part of an engagement
Where to start
You do not buy the whole thing at once.
- Start hereThe Budget Risk AuditTwo spreadsheets from you. Two weeks. We tell you whether your data can support a model, where your budget is concentrated, and one thing worth testing. If the answer is no, you hear it in week one.
- ThenThe Model and the PlanYour custom model, validated on months it never saw, and the budget that comes out of it. Under 10% error or your money back.
- Every quarterThe ProofLive tests that check the plan against the real world, and feed the result back into the model. Each turn it gets sharper.
- LaterThe HorizonRoadmapCustomer lifetime value, launch forecasting, and price and product trade-offs — so the model is pointed at long-run value, not just this quarter.
Start with two spreadsheets.
- Spend by channel by week
- Weekly sales, orders, or leads
- No integration, no access to your systems
- If your data cannot support a model, we tell you in week one